Forecast comparison
Recorded sales are censored by stockouts and partial fulfilments. The probabilistic model reconstructs latent demand before forecasting.
The recorded sales decline was partly caused by 19 stockout weeks and 8 partial fulfilments. The model estimates that approximately 13% of latent demand was not visible in recorded sales.
Stockout weeks
19
Partial fulfilments
8
Latent demand not visible
13%
Forecast value add
13%
vs incumbent WAPE 34%
Modelled lost sales
$8.5m
Model diagnostics
Accuracy, bias and business impact for Persil ProClean 100oz. Better accuracy is only useful if it improves service and reduces lost sales.
| Model | WAPE | Bias | MASE | Quantile loss | Forecast value add | Service level | Lost sales | Planner override |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incumbent forecast | 33.8% | -8.2% | 1.32 | 0.22 | baseline | 91.8% | $8.5m | 31% |
| Seasonal baseline | 34.0% | -4.9% | 0.93 | 0.20 | -0.7% | 88.6% | $7.6m | 14% |
| Stockout-adjusted probabilistic | 29.2% | 0.1% | 0.73 | 0.14 | 13.4% | 93.9% | $6.4m | 9% |
For this SKU the stockout-adjusted model improves accuracy by 13% and raises modelled service level to 93.9%, reducing lost sales from $8.5m to $6.4m.
Champion–challenger across the portfolio
The probabilistic model does not always win. For stable, low-variability SKUs a simple seasonal baseline is the honest champion.
| SKU | Category | Incumbent WAPE | Baseline WAPE | Probabilistic WAPE | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persil ProClean 100oz | Home Care | 33.8% | 34.0% | 29.2% | Probabilistic |
| Persil Discs 38ct | Home Care | 32.4% | 29.1% | 28.2% | Probabilistic |
| Snuggle Softener 95oz | Home Care | 28.4% | 28.7% | 19.5% | Probabilistic |
| Sunlight Dish 30oz | Home Care | 35.6% | 29.8% | 26.3% | Probabilistic |
| Dove Shampoo 12oz | Hair Care | 31.4% | 32.3% | 25.8% | Probabilistic |
| TRESemme Conditioner 28oz | Hair Care | 35.5% | 35.3% | 27.1% | Probabilistic |
| Suave Shampoo 30oz | Hair Care | 27.3% | 23.3% | 17.7% | Probabilistic |
| Nexxus Hair Mask 8oz | Hair Care | 33.5% | 32.0% | 27.0% | Probabilistic |
| Dove Beauty Bar 4pk | Personal Care | 25.5% | 16.7% | 20.6% | Seasonal baseline |
| Dove Body Wash 22oz | Personal Care | 24.2% | 22.4% | 21.3% | Probabilistic |
| Degree Advanced 2.6oz | Personal Care | 32.0% | 30.3% | 20.3% | Probabilistic |
| Axe Body Spray 4oz | Personal Care | 32.4% | 30.0% | 25.0% | Probabilistic |
| Vaseline Lotion 20.3oz | Personal Care | 31.6% | 18.7% | 21.4% | Seasonal baseline |
| Hellmann's Mayo 30oz | Foods & Ice Cream | 27.9% | 16.5% | 19.2% | Seasonal baseline |
| Knorr Sides Rice 5.6oz | Foods & Ice Cream | 33.1% | 30.2% | 29.4% | Probabilistic |
| Knorr Bouillon 6ct | Foods & Ice Cream | 24.1% | 25.5% | 15.5% | Probabilistic |
| Ben & Jerry's Pint | Foods & Ice Cream | 30.6% | 28.5% | 20.6% | Probabilistic |
| Talenti Pint | Foods & Ice Cream | 34.3% | 29.1% | 24.9% | Probabilistic |
| Breyers 48oz | Foods & Ice Cream | 30.2% | 25.4% | 25.4% | Probabilistic |
| Lipton Tea 100ct | Foods & Ice Cream | 35.4% | 23.9% | 27.0% | Seasonal baseline |